Have we been much too optimistic about EV sales? Why?

The post Toyota says it would rather buy credits than ‘waste’ money on EVs quotes its CEO as saying that he "believes EVs will only make up 30% of the US new-vehicle market in 2030, half of the target the EPA sought last year."   Have we been much too overoptimistic about the future of EV sales?  Why do you think this is? Or why not?